Are refugees the solution to Japan’s aging problem?

After spending years studying Japan and Japanese, I at first found it difficult to reconcile investing so much time in a developed, safe country with my other professional goals, mainly in the human rights and crisis arena. Then, it hit me: Japan has an incredibly low refugee acceptance rate and a very high demand for young workers. Refugees tend to be young, so what if refugees could solve Japan's labor problem and Japan could solve refugees' danger problem?

I became interested in this question a long time ago. I brought it up in my JET Programme interview, to the Harvard Kennedy School when trying to justify working there for a year before starting school, and to just about every person I met in Japan (after establishing a rapport). After a year in Japan and a long time concerned with refugees, here's what I found.

What's the problem?

Japan is an aging society. Longevity and low birth rates have led to a much larger ratio of people relying upon government benefits to people working to pay for them; benefits programs have doubled as a share of GDP in the last 30 years alone. On top of this, Japan has a huge debt burden. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's proposed economic solution, raising the consumption tax from 8 to 10%, has so far done more harm than good.

What Japan needs to do is increase production--a very simple way to do this is by adding people to the workforce. Japan's aforementioned low birth rate means this will have to be foreigners. This is where refugees come in.

Amnesty International says there are currently 22 million refugees. On top of this, 10% of refugees need to be resettled every year because of outbreaks of violence, insecurity, or xenophobia. More than 80% of refugees today are hosted in developing nations despite the fact that developed nations, like Japan, have a far greater capacity to host refugees.

In Japan's case, there is even a huge need for people. Right now, foreign workers make up 2% of Japan's labor force. For most developed countries, this number is around 10%. In the US, the world's largest economy, that number is above 17%.

What is Japanese immigration like now?

Complicated. But hey, at least the whole country isn't closed off to the outside world anymore. In 2017, Japan received 20,000 applications for asylum and accepted 20. At the height of the Syrian refugee crises, Japan accepted just 7 Syrian refugees (from 2011 to 2016). In 2018, the number of accepted refugees doubled to 42, though compared to the 16,269 people who were deported the same year, this change is kinda insignificant. What is also interesting is that the number of applicants also dropped by half--to around 10,000--in 2018. Why is that?

The reason is that Japan's refugee/asylum system has long served as a back channel for those hoping to immigrate to or work in Japan. Many economic migrants applied for asylum to take advantage of the 6 month work privilege. "Filipinos accounted for a quarter of the applicants. Conflict zones in the Middle East and Africa — Syria, Afghanistan, Congo, Iraq, Yemen, and South Sudan are some of the usual countries UNHCR expects to see — accounted for only 1%." This was not intended. Japan cracked down in 2018, but did not fully solve the problem.

Another complication is the human rights abuses in the migrant labor system in Japan. The main culprit is the Technical Intern Training Program (TITP), which allows unskilled 'interns' to come to Japan and work. However, "While some interns aren't taught any skills, others experience forced labor conditions including having their passports confiscated, being given arbitrary salary deductions, being confined to particular accommodations, being prevented from communicating with anyone beyond their colleagues, with some paying up to $10,000 to participate in the program.” Essentially, this is how Japan uses and abuses cheap labor without a functional immigration system. There are 230,000 people in the program today.

There are more problems with this system, like the extremely narrow definition of a refugee Japan uses, the racism/xenophobia, the years and years of wait times, or the abysmal treatment of migrants, but I believe these are the main barriers affecting the system at a large scale.

What could the system be like?

While there is still a huge unmet global need, there are some good examples that could provide a model for Japan. Canada is the current world leader for sheer numbers and many countries have raised their quotas in recent years. On top of this, there are times when Japan itself was a model to follow. In the wake of the Vietnam war, Japan took in more than 10,000 refugees who fled from Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.

However, even if Japan suddenly overcame the massive popular hesitation around foreigners and refugees, the numbers would not be spectacularly high. As alluded to above, very few applications in the refugee system actually come from people in need worldwide. There are three main reasons for this: lack of social networks (migrants tend to go where their friends and family have gone), unfavorable labor laws (see 過労死 karoshi), and Japan's intentional barriers to entry such as a mandatory 6 to 9 month orientation course. In short, without a campaign to raise application rates to Japan, estimates range from 50 to 2,000 people would come as refugees each year. Though the high end is more refugees than Japan has accepted since singing the UN Refugee Convention in 1981, it is not nearly enough to make up for Japan's labor shortages.

Conclusion

Refugees alone will not solve Japan's aging problem. That's because there just aren't enough of them. However, each additional refugee admitted to Japan will be a life greatly improved and a step towards addressing the labor shortage; it's still a win-win to accept more refugees. This raises the question, what will solve this problem?

One suggestion is to expand the immigration system more generally to accept migrants of all types. Of course, this should be done in a much different way than the abusive system that exists now. However, some estimate that even expanding and reforming this program would only be a drop in the bucket. A major overhaul would be needed to the sheer numbers needed to properly address the labor shortage. This means sweeping liberalization of the system and massive increase in support throughout society.

But what if the problem is not labor shortage at all? Of course, the aging of the population is certainly one half of the equation, but the other half is declining birth rates. On reason for this decline is the pressure Japanese society puts on young people and women. Japan has some of the longest working hours in the world and many problems surrounding contractual employment that inhibit young people's ability to start families. Japan ranks 161st out of 193 countries in female political representation. Women in Japan make up just 13 percent of managerial positions (compared to 44% in the US). Socially, harassment of working mothers is so common it has its own word (マタハラ matahara from 'maternity harassment') and women are sometimes forced to apologize for becoming pregnant out of order (senior women go at more convenient times). Every country has its problems and the Japanese labor problem is certainly complex, but I believe it is reasonable to hypothesize that reducing barriers for young families and fully utilizing the potential of women could huge positive effect on this and other problems.

At the risk of further complicating the issue, I have to admit that my own experience in Japan does not fully confirm the data and research above (specifically this survey). Though there was certainly a lot of apprehension and concern for safety and crime, almost every Japanese person I talked to thought that Japan could and should do a better job of accepting refugees--especially after we talked for a while. There was a genuine, widespread sense of international duty and a willingness to do the right thing. True, it may be easier to give your true opinion to a Japanese surveyor than an actual foreigner in the flesh. Another interpretation is that, maybe, this is a larger conversation that, once enough people have had it, could move Japan in the direction of accepting more refugees.

Book Review 2019

There are a number of my experiences from 2019 I am still trying to understand: finishing a year teaching Elementary School in rural Japan, moving back to America, my first semester of graduate school... In the meantime, I think I would like to share some more episodic influential moments of the past year. I read some very good books.

Ok, ok, that may not be as unique or exciting, but the changes 2019 brought played out in a noticeable way here and the framework of one book and one time is much easier to break down for now.

A perfect storm of having more flexibility, better organization, and less required reading in Japan revitalized my love for reading, to which I am thankful. What I discovered is that, when I pick the books, they can be incredibly transformative. Scrolling through social media or keeping up with the news can provide a lot of information, but having a thoughtful, well-organized idea that has room to develop is unparalleled.

I am still excited to use this platform to share my experiences some ideas of my own, but I want to get the ideas these books gave me down while it is still timely. Plus, a ton of people have been asking me for citations from these books or recommendations in general, so two birds (sorry PETA).

5: Modern China, A Very Short Introduction - Rana Mitter

Increasingly, I find China in the news with shockingly little context for its national history or culture. From the 'economic miracle' to the questions of social credit and surveillance, it always seemed like stories and events were presented as if they came out of nowhere. As someone with only a cursory familiarity of China, I felt it necessary to take the first step in correcting this.

What followed was a bit of a research binge. I highlighted, took notes, and researched something on almost every page. This book is incredibly dense yet remains an easy and quick read. As with every book in the Oxford VSI series (of which I have read about two dozen by now--amazing), reading this will get you to the level of understanding the basics of what is going on with China and how it got there, but with serious limitations. If you'd like to know enough to have a conversation about an issue pertaining to China, that would probably deserve its own time and effort outside this book.

All-in-all I recommend this to anyone who has found themselves curious about China and who wants a place to start. I've loaned the book out multiple times to friends from China and those just interested (it is still away at the time of writing) and it always starts some great conversations.

4: Winners Take All - Anand Giridharadas 

This is probably my most quoted book of 2019. What's better is that I even got to see him talk at (and subsequently eviscerate) the Kennedy school less than a month after reading this book. For anyone who hasn't listened to a podcast or watched Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj, this book takes aim at the plutocrat class. The thesis is that millionaires and billionaires avoid paying their fair share in taxes and redeem the social capital by making a show of their comparatively minor philanthropy.

Of course, there are many problems with this. First, a small group of people are controlling huge amounts of resources in various public-good-oriented spheres--and their biases can have devastating effects. Second, to paraphrase Anand when he sat in the John F. Kennedy Forum at Harvard, we now have a situation where the wolves are guarding the sheep pen; the people in charge of change in our society are the very people who have the most to lose from the type of change that will actually make a difference. Most important is the strong and persuasive pushback against the idea that private enterprise is the best instrument of positive social change. Instead, Anand champions government and democracy.

Anand speaking to a full house, though unfortunately at the same time as Mark Cuban (some of the people who went should have been here)

If any of this piqued your interest, I highly recommend picking it up at your local library. I find many of his arguments compelling, but the particular way in which he phrases them is exceptionally entertaining and clever. My one critique is the irony of his chapters on thought leaders and work at places like McKinsey. If you read it and read about his recent work, I think you'll understand what I mean.

3: How to Hide an Empire - Daniel Immerwahr 

Easily the best-written book I read in 2016 is this. The book covers the lesser known or intentionally hidden history of America's expansion and control over land outside the continental U.S. Although we often decry oppression and empire (and in fact mythologize our creation in defiance of these terrors), there is evidence that the United States is the largest empire the world has ever known.

The book breaks down many ways in which this is true. First is the most obvious conceptualization of empire: territory and oppression. Chilling examples of this are the horrific expansions into the Philippines and Hawai'i. Not only did this expansion require intense violence (including, arguably, the perfection of the concentration camp), but also intense dehumanization. This campaign was so widespread that when Pearl Harbor happened, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was not sure the American people would care enough about their rights-less 'compatriots' in the Philippines, Guam, Alaska and Hawai'i to go to war. He chose to focus on the territory with the highest white population, Hawai'i, to make the best case for retaliation. This fact may explain why many, including myself, did not know the attacks on December 7/8th occurred outside Hawai'i at all. This is one of many awful revelations about American territory in the book.

On top of territory, the US also maintains an empire through language, culture, and military presence overseas--and these are all linked. Ever wonder why so many foreign people seem to be learning English? Ever thought why Jazz is so popular in Japan and Rock was so big in the UK? Ever surprised to hear US soldiers were attacked in Africa? If so, definitely check this book out.

2: How Europe Underdeveloped Africa - Walter Rodney

Speaking of hidden history, Walter Rodney has done some very heavy lifting documenting and countering the massive systemic obscurities in the Western narrative of World History, especially pertaining to Africa. The book starts by correcting some very troublesome misconceptions about what Africa was like before European contact. In short: much the same, often better, but just without the fancy boats. Most African kingdoms were not interested in European goods, instead preferring to trade internally. This forced European traders to bring goods from Asia and, later, the New World which started the snowball information advantage.

From then on, Europeans (and later the people in their colonies) began to exploit Africa's resources and sabotage its development. In fact, the title seeks not to explain the lack of development in Africa but rather to show 'underdevelopment' as a verb--something Europe did to Africa intentionally.

The most troublesome effect of reading this book is how frustrating this perspective is for conversations about aid and development. Seeing development as something that happens over time is not only ignorant of different histories, values, and cosmovisions, but also obscures the past and present violence maintaining the system. Changing a few numbers around on a national budget plan is not going to correct for centuries of plunder and a rigged global system. If any of this was new to you (as much of it was for me), consider this book essential.

Honorable mentions:

  「質問です。」- 名越 康文, Rape During Civil War - Dara Cohen

「質問です。」, meaning something like "the questions" in English, is simultaneously a self-help and a self-discovery book. While I personally did not find many of the questions to be relevant (not exactly in the target audience I presume), I did find the organization of the book particularly well-suited for use getting to know people or staging a moment of self-reflection. Thus, I have had a great deal of fun with the book, but cannot bring myself to recommend it outside a very small group of people.

Dara Cohen's book is exactly what it sounds. The writing is clear, the organization is impeccable, and the subject matter is truly brutal. Particularly shocking was the fact that much of the research in this book and a lot of research on similar topics is that it borrows on research of US fraternities. That's not a typo. Literally the closest analogue to the sexual atrocities committed in armed conflict is what's happening on US college campuses. It's among the most disturbing and hard-to-read-in-public books I've experienced, but incredibly fascinating and informative.

1: The Divide by Jason Hickel

If you're looking for a book that will change the way you see the world, look no further. This is a shocking indictment that captures the best (or, I guess, worst) parts of the books by Walter Rodney, Daniel Immerwahr, and Anand Giridharadas. It then goes further, dismantling how the system we think promotes world peace and prosperity may in fact be a carefully misleading cherry-picking of statistics designed to obscure suffering and promote an unsustainable lifestyle.

For example, it is impossible to avoid hearing about how innovations or the work of non-profits have reduced things like world hunger or poverty. It is even harder to not believe what they say--the consensus is broad and non-ideological. However, many of the definitions of these terms are not evidence-based but rather based on what measures fit the narrative; world hunger is only decreasing if you only count people living on less than 1,000 calories a day (potentially less than a third of what is needed for a lifestyle of manual labor) for an entire year. Poverty is only decreasing if you use a number somewhere around $1-2 a day, but experts say the amount of money you make does not have a measurable impact on quality of life until you make around $7 a day or more. The number of people making less than $7 a day has been increasing for as long as it has been measured. Even the best case scenario of the UN's sustainable development goals sees this number continuing to increase as a success (the UN uses a lower number and uses percentages instead of counts).

Once you get past the manipulation problem, there is also the problem of how to fix the problems we already have. Our global governance institutions--the UN, World Bank, WTO, etc.--are all intentionally biased in favor of the United States and other wealthy nations. How can we expect them to fix the problems of big nations having too much power when they were designed to maintain this system?

There is much more breadth and depth (as well as solutions) in the book. Definitely go read it.

Summary

Each of these books really helped to change one aspect of how I saw the world. I believe their coming at a time of intense change in my own life made me much more receptive to the challenge and created an even greater sense of urgency in my present trajectory. I am grateful for a lot that has happened this year, but most of all I am thankful for the opportunity to learn and apply my values to a complex world. Writing this helped me realize that change is good. In fact, it might be the only thing that can save us.